2007年8月20日

Sentinel Management Group 不是說避險基金嗎...

雖然上禮拜五開始, 美國聯準會已經把借款給一般銀行的利息在一天內從6.25%砍到5.75%, 導致北美股市大漲. 看起來似乎好像都一切都要開始美好了, 但是其實在過去幾個禮拜裡面, 很多避險基金(Hedge Fund)都已經受重傷. 即使政府的措施都救不回來.

很多人可能都聽過避險基金, 但是都不是很了解這些基金到底都做些什麼投資. 已北美來說, 避險基金都是賣給法人或是比較富有的人. 基本投資額可能都是百萬美金以上, 但是大部分頂尖的基金都是已USD10M為基本入場門票. 想一想, 北美在怎麼好賺, 也不多人可以拿一千萬美金來投資一擋基金. 但是我在這裡不是要解釋避險基金是什麼, 那種東西在谷歌上打一下就可以找到一大堆解釋.

今天想要講的是, 時機好的時候, 大家都很好賺. 時機不好的時候, 最近很多避險基金都已經講的很白了. 因為賭錯方向, 所以可能導致整個基金都快要掛了. Sentinel Management Group, 一間在芝加哥的避險基金. 老實說, 他們的Money Market基金標榜的就是穩. 如果客戶需要現金的話, 當天就可以提出來. 不需要像某些基金需要15天才可以變現. 但是上禮拜二這個公司發出了一個很特殊的消息.

"Sentinel Management Group on Tuesday froze assets in a $1.6 billion fund, saying too many investors are trying to withdraw their money. Sentinel Management, which boasts on its website that no client has ever lost money in its fund, makes money mainly by betting on overnight interest rates outpacing yields on short-term Treasury bonds."

(西恩的看法: 我們已經快要不行了. 如果客戶再賣下去, 我們就要倒了.)

因為最近的次級貸款跟信用市場的問題, 導致很多法人都需要資金. 因為Sentinel其中的生意理念就是管理很多人的短期現金, 所以當市場需要資金的時候, 就會開始賣掉Sentinel的基金. 但是這個消息已經代表, Sentinel已經出問題了. 當你停止你的客戶來拿錢的時候. 這個問題就已經很大了. Sentinel的解釋如下,

"Investor fear has overtaken reason and has induced a period in which most securities have simply ceased to trade,'' Sentinel said in its letter, which didn't specify which funds were affected. "We are concerned that we cannot meet any significant redemption requests without selling securities at deep discounts to their fair value and therefore causing unnecessary losses to our clients."

(西恩的看法: 真的真的已經沒錢了, 如果你要我們賠錢賣掉然後把錢還給你們那也是可以. 但是可能連賠錢買都很難. 因為賭錯了, 根本沒人要讓我們變現.)

其實當看到這種消息的時候, 大家自己也應該有心理準備. 這個基金可能很難混下去了. 照理說, Money Market應該是最安全的. 但是避險基金因為真的太冒險了, (不應該叫避險基金或是對沖基金, 叫個風險基金還比較適合) 這樣的市場都可以把錢全玩掉.

" The Prime Portfolio is designed to give clients "a short- term investment alternative that combines safety of principal, liquidity and competitive yields through a portfolio of investment-grade securities,'' Sentinel said on the Web site. It also said that the firm follows "concentration limits'' on investment holdings in order to reduce risk.

"Short Duration"

"Finally, maintaining very short duration helps ensure stable values even in volatile market conditions,'' according to the Web site. "

(西恩的看法: 講的都很好聽. 如果你認真的注意一下. 但是, 老實說這些避險基金經理人真的是拿錢拿太多了. 也不好好的注意一下. 市場一下出問題就把錢都賠光了)

幾天後,

"Sentinel Management Group Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Friday, less than a week after the Northbrook-based cash-management firm halted redemptions from investors because of market volatility.

Its list of creditors with the 20 largest unsecured claims includes four Chicago-area firms: SMW Trading Co., Jump Trading LLC, Fortis Clearing Americas and Stone Capital Group Inc.

Chapter 11 allows a business to operate as it reorganizes its finances through a court-approved plan."

最後果然沒辦法還是需要破產保護. 我寫這篇的意思就是, 有時候看到很多避險基金/思募基金表現多好多好. 在完全不需要政府的監督下, 大家都很會講. 市場一下掛掉了, 很多問題就跑出來了. 我個認為這只是冰山一角, 現在應該還有很多基金在撐, 只要撐過最近的上上下下, 應該就還好. 撐不過就只好去破產保護. 大家等著看吧...

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